The first six months after a Rockstar PC release are mostly waiting. Tools take time. We work through what's likely to appear, in what order, based on every prior Rockstar release.
For the broader release-and-modding question, see the PC release piece.
Tier 1: archive editor (week 1)
An OpenIV equivalent - the tool that opens Rockstar's RPF archives. Either a successor to OpenIV or OpenIV itself extended to handle the new format. This appears within days of the PC release.
Without an archive editor, no other modding is possible. This is the unblocker.
Tier 2: script support (weeks 1–8)
A ScriptHookV equivalent - the support library that lets script mods run. Texture replacement, vehicle replacement, simple tweaks become possible.
Most mod authors who released early in the GTA V cycle were script-mod authors. Same is likely here.
Tier 3: graphical map editor (months 3–12)
A CodeWalker equivalent - the graphical editor for map data. The project takes longer because the file format has to be reverse-engineered first.
Without a graphical editor, map modding stays limited to whoever can edit the underlying XML by hand. With it, the scene grows.
Tier 4: 3ds Max / Blender plugins (months 6–18)
Authoring plugins for the new format. Once these exist, custom 3D content becomes practical at scale - new MLOs, new buildings, new vehicles.
The plugin ecosystem follows the editor; modders need both. Adjacent creator-side utilities - calculators, region planners, RP economy tools - have historically lived alongside the modding chain rather than inside it; GTA 6 planning tools is where that broader category collects.
Tier 5: full conversion frameworks (year 2+)
Multiplayer modding frameworks - the FiveM and RAGE MP equivalents - mature in year two. Major map conversions kick off in year two and ship across years.
Most ambitious GTA 5 mods didn't ship until 2018-2020 - five-plus years after the PC release. Same multi-year pattern is likely here.