The ban question is clear once you separate the two cases. We work through it.
Single-player modding
Generally tolerated since the 2017 OpenIV reversal. Mods affecting single-player only - texture replacements, custom maps, MLOs in single-player - have not historically resulted in bans.
The risk: very small, when staying out of online entirely.
Online modding
Aggressively enforced. Cheating tools, aimbots, money exploits, modded content in online sessions - all subject to ban.
The risk: high. Don't bring single-player mods into online sessions.
The grey zone
Some mod tools modify game files in ways that affect both single-player and online behaviour. Best practice: keep your modded install isolated from online play. Some players maintain a clean install for online and a modded install for single-player.